KISII COUNTY: HOW CHRIS OBURE WILL WIN THE COUNTY BOSS SEAT
By Haron Ototo
A part from the Presidential race which is the hottest of the contests in the forthcoming general election, The gubernatorial race level is onother area to be keenly followed country wide. Politically the Governor becomes second after the President in matters election. This is the factor that has been well documented even to the point that people of Presidential statures and with Presidential ambitions have decided to use it as a stepping stone toward the President.
In the aforementioned case; Alfred Mutua, Isaac Ruto, Peter Munya, Hassan Joho are some of the cases who have trained their eyes on the Presidency through hope they are going to retain their Gubernatorial seats.
Closer home to Kisii County. In 2013 Senator Chris Obure literally made Governor Ongwae Governor. Four years down the line Obure is running for the governorship position in a Jubilee ticket and against his own project whom he accuses of under-performance. And by look of things Ongwae is headed home and Obure is coming in as the second Governor of Kisii County.
Before we look at the voter register, let look at the how Obure conducts his campign. Obure has adopted a one on one engagement with the electorates in that you rarely see him an a posh car or a campaign caravan. He has decided to with total humility which in turn has resonated well with the Kisii people. Do you know that if you see a probox and then people surround the same probox people will say it is Obure? That is how humble he is and he has been.
His main opponent has lost a big deal in terms of main supporters and influential people. In this scenarios either Ongwae has lost and Obure has gained or Ongwae has lost and somebody else has gained. In either case, Ongwae has lost. For instance; The Kitutu Chache South Constituency's Anthony Kibagendi who played a key role in Ongwae's reelection deserted him for Obure, His Counterpart from South Mugirango - Silvanus Osoro left Ongwae for Oyongo. And for a couple of times Ongwae lost his own running mate Maangi to Obure.
Now it is the elephant in the room. The projected voting for the Duo:
BOBASI: The biggest Constituency in Kisii County if numbers are anything to go by. The Constituency has 89,310 registered voters and it is the main support base for Chris Obure. Here Obure will garner Over 65,000 votes against Ongwae who will garner below 20,000, Manson Oyongo and Lumumba will share the rest.
NYARIBARI CHACHE: Charles Nyachae and Richard Tong'i are likely to get majority of the electorates here to vote for Obure. One of the major reasons will be that Obure supports Charles for the Senatorial seat. I see some reciprocity from the two partis. Of the 77,729 registered voters, lets give Obure 45,000 and Ongwae 25,000.
SOUTH MUGIRANGO. This is the home to KNC's party leader and Gubernatorial aspirant Oyongo's home turf. Of the 67,345 Registered voters Obure will like get 15,000, Ongwae 20,000 Oyongo will take the Majority share.
NYARIBARI MASABA. The registered voters here are 59,060. Because of Ongeri factor Obure will get 15,000 and Ongwae 35,000.
KITUTU CHACHE SOUTH. Of the 59,017 registered voters, Kibagendi has tilted some ground towards Obure and am crediting anything that Obure will get here to him. It is not easy to overlook Onyonka's involvement in Obomo caucus too. Obure 20,000, Ongwae 35,000.
KITUTU CHACHE NORTH. Esimba Jimmy Nuru Angwenyi has never lost to Ongwae and through him and the like of Japhet Nyakundi, Obure will have a upper hand in the 50,665 registered votes. Obure 35,000, Ongwae 15,000
BOMACHOGE BORABU. Due to the fact that Obure's running mate comes from here let give Obure 35,000 of the 49,081 votes and Ongwae 10,000.
BOMACHOGE CHACHE. The home of Governor Ongwae's running mate has 41,745 registered voters. Here Obure will get 10,000 vs Ongwae's 30,000.
From the above arithmetics, Obure will carry the day by getting over 240,000 votes of the total 546,580. On the other hand Ongwae will come second with around 180'000 votes. The remaining votes will be shared by Oyongo, Lumumba and the voter turnout. I give Obure 43% and declare him the Second governor of Kisii County.
A break down of Kisii registered voters extracted from the IEBC register on 27th July 2017
KISII 546,580
BONCHARI 52,624
SOUTH MUGIRANGO 67,345
BOMACHOGE BORABU 49,081
BOBASI 89,310
BOMACHOGE CHACHE 41,745
NYARIBARI MASABA 59,064
NYARIBARI CHACHE 77,729
KITUTU CHACHE NORTH 50,665
KITUTU CHACHE SOUTH 59,017
A part from the Presidential race which is the hottest of the contests in the forthcoming general election, The gubernatorial race level is onother area to be keenly followed country wide. Politically the Governor becomes second after the President in matters election. This is the factor that has been well documented even to the point that people of Presidential statures and with Presidential ambitions have decided to use it as a stepping stone toward the President.
 |
| Chris Obure. Photo: Courtesy |
Closer home to Kisii County. In 2013 Senator Chris Obure literally made Governor Ongwae Governor. Four years down the line Obure is running for the governorship position in a Jubilee ticket and against his own project whom he accuses of under-performance. And by look of things Ongwae is headed home and Obure is coming in as the second Governor of Kisii County.
Before we look at the voter register, let look at the how Obure conducts his campign. Obure has adopted a one on one engagement with the electorates in that you rarely see him an a posh car or a campaign caravan. He has decided to with total humility which in turn has resonated well with the Kisii people. Do you know that if you see a probox and then people surround the same probox people will say it is Obure? That is how humble he is and he has been.
His main opponent has lost a big deal in terms of main supporters and influential people. In this scenarios either Ongwae has lost and Obure has gained or Ongwae has lost and somebody else has gained. In either case, Ongwae has lost. For instance; The Kitutu Chache South Constituency's Anthony Kibagendi who played a key role in Ongwae's reelection deserted him for Obure, His Counterpart from South Mugirango - Silvanus Osoro left Ongwae for Oyongo. And for a couple of times Ongwae lost his own running mate Maangi to Obure.
Now it is the elephant in the room. The projected voting for the Duo:
BOBASI: The biggest Constituency in Kisii County if numbers are anything to go by. The Constituency has 89,310 registered voters and it is the main support base for Chris Obure. Here Obure will garner Over 65,000 votes against Ongwae who will garner below 20,000, Manson Oyongo and Lumumba will share the rest.
NYARIBARI CHACHE: Charles Nyachae and Richard Tong'i are likely to get majority of the electorates here to vote for Obure. One of the major reasons will be that Obure supports Charles for the Senatorial seat. I see some reciprocity from the two partis. Of the 77,729 registered voters, lets give Obure 45,000 and Ongwae 25,000.
SOUTH MUGIRANGO. This is the home to KNC's party leader and Gubernatorial aspirant Oyongo's home turf. Of the 67,345 Registered voters Obure will like get 15,000, Ongwae 20,000 Oyongo will take the Majority share.
NYARIBARI MASABA. The registered voters here are 59,060. Because of Ongeri factor Obure will get 15,000 and Ongwae 35,000.
KITUTU CHACHE SOUTH. Of the 59,017 registered voters, Kibagendi has tilted some ground towards Obure and am crediting anything that Obure will get here to him. It is not easy to overlook Onyonka's involvement in Obomo caucus too. Obure 20,000, Ongwae 35,000.
KITUTU CHACHE NORTH. Esimba Jimmy Nuru Angwenyi has never lost to Ongwae and through him and the like of Japhet Nyakundi, Obure will have a upper hand in the 50,665 registered votes. Obure 35,000, Ongwae 15,000
BOMACHOGE BORABU. Due to the fact that Obure's running mate comes from here let give Obure 35,000 of the 49,081 votes and Ongwae 10,000.
BOMACHOGE CHACHE. The home of Governor Ongwae's running mate has 41,745 registered voters. Here Obure will get 10,000 vs Ongwae's 30,000.
From the above arithmetics, Obure will carry the day by getting over 240,000 votes of the total 546,580. On the other hand Ongwae will come second with around 180'000 votes. The remaining votes will be shared by Oyongo, Lumumba and the voter turnout. I give Obure 43% and declare him the Second governor of Kisii County.
A break down of Kisii registered voters extracted from the IEBC register on 27th July 2017
KISII 546,580
BONCHARI 52,624
SOUTH MUGIRANGO 67,345
BOMACHOGE BORABU 49,081
BOBASI 89,310
BOMACHOGE CHACHE 41,745
NYARIBARI MASABA 59,064
NYARIBARI CHACHE 77,729
KITUTU CHACHE NORTH 50,665
KITUTU CHACHE SOUTH 59,017
haonya12@gmail.com
Haron is a non practicing Journalist with Bachelor of Arts in Communication & Media
Kisii University
Kisii University
