KISII GUBERNATORIAL RACE 2017: OBURE HAS A BETTER CHANCE AGAINST ONGWAE
In the run in to 2013 general election, majority of Kenyans had a wrong impression on what being a Governor or a Senator meant. Not withstanding the seniority of the aforementioned position in the political landscape we went to the elections totally ignorant. That is how James Ongwae a former Public Servant ended up becoming the governor of Kisii County and Chris Obure a seasoned politician taking the senatorial seat.
Chris Obure (The current senator and aspiring Governor) supported and campaigned for Governor Ongwae and am tempted to say that he delivered the seat to the later magnificently. Ongwae was a perrenial looser, he had never won in his own constituency where he had ran before, he relied on the ODM wave and support from Senator Obure and his constituency (Bobasi) which has the largest number of registered voters(over 80,000).
Other factors which favored Ongwae in 2013: First, his choice of running mate in Joash maangi which delvered the Bomachoge votes. Though Maangi was little known at the time, the people of Bomachoge had to Identify with him.
Second, Ongwae was either ruuning against Perrenial Loosers like Lumumba Nyaberi or against Newcomers in politics. People like Zadoc Ogutu who were testing political waters even though they were clueless from the word go as much as politics is concerned, were not equal to the task. To make the waters even friendlier to Ongwae, Lumumba, his closest rival in the gubernatorial race was flip flopping up to the eleventh hour when he decidedto go for the seat. At long last He lost by an embarrassing margin.
Third, Omingo Magara with his party PDP masqueraded as Pro. Cord hence Ongwae was able to get a big hand from the South Mugirango Constituency which is the second largest number of registered voters in the region after Bobasi.
Latly and most fundamental was the assumption that Kisii was an ODM region which appeared to be true By the fact that all the major seats were taken by the Opposition Cord.
Now: Is the ground the same? The answer is NO. One, Obure his going for the same seat and still his constituency ha the largest number of voters. Two, Obure has support from Bomachoge due to two factors i.e Maangi is likely to support him and he was once their member of Parliament when Bobasi and Bomachoge were one constituency. Three, South Mugirango looks like it is drifting away from Ongwae, take the recent alleged shortchanging of Silvanus Osoro in a view of influencing ODM nominations you can add Anthony Kibagendi ( the two are complaining of being short changed by the Governor).
The most damning is the corruption allegations that the Governor is facing and the major one being the embezzlement of Over seven Billion Kenyan Shillings which seems not to drift away any soon. He his also alleged to practice nepotism where by his close family members secure jobs in expence of other Citizens. Sum up such factors and you will realize that he has ceded much ground to Obure.
Other factors include, The support that Maangi has from the Members of Kisii County Assembly, Majority of elected leaders (Mambers of parliament) from the Large Kisii County are in the same camp with Obure (Obomo Bwomogusii Lobby) which has brought great impact in the political landscape since it has made the Him (Obure) look more closer to the people than Ongwae.
Not forgetting the surpot from one of the most respected family - Nyachae family has its demonstrated by Charles Nyachae.
I know somebody will Think that the Recently conducted Nyacheki By Election showed that ODM still maintains the superiority that it had in the region. In fact if the By election is to go by, ODM should be worried because the seat was theirs in region that is considered to be theirs and it is not logical for one to lose what one never had nor one to win what one already has.. Jubilee managed to take them to the wire, Jubilee never lost and Cord never won. If you won't mind you can also look at the results of the By election in Sala Ward in Tana River County where The ODM candidate got Less than 100 votes. who should be worried?
As things stand, Chris Obure has a upper hand in winning the Kisii Gubernatorial race and become the 2nd Kisii Governor come August 2017.
A break down of Registered voters in Kisii County (IEBC website)
261 BONCHARI 39,579
262 SOUTH MUGIRANGO 51,246
263 BOMACHOGE BORABU 38,701
264 BOBASI 66,475
BOMACHOGE CHACHE 31,488
266 NYARIBARI MASABA 43,982
267 NYARIBARI CHACHE 58,553
268 KITUTU CHACHE NORTH 37,805
269 KITUTU CHACHE SOUTH 45,116
Chris Obure (The current senator and aspiring Governor) supported and campaigned for Governor Ongwae and am tempted to say that he delivered the seat to the later magnificently. Ongwae was a perrenial looser, he had never won in his own constituency where he had ran before, he relied on the ODM wave and support from Senator Obure and his constituency (Bobasi) which has the largest number of registered voters(over 80,000).
Other factors which favored Ongwae in 2013: First, his choice of running mate in Joash maangi which delvered the Bomachoge votes. Though Maangi was little known at the time, the people of Bomachoge had to Identify with him.
Second, Ongwae was either ruuning against Perrenial Loosers like Lumumba Nyaberi or against Newcomers in politics. People like Zadoc Ogutu who were testing political waters even though they were clueless from the word go as much as politics is concerned, were not equal to the task. To make the waters even friendlier to Ongwae, Lumumba, his closest rival in the gubernatorial race was flip flopping up to the eleventh hour when he decidedto go for the seat. At long last He lost by an embarrassing margin.
Third, Omingo Magara with his party PDP masqueraded as Pro. Cord hence Ongwae was able to get a big hand from the South Mugirango Constituency which is the second largest number of registered voters in the region after Bobasi.
Latly and most fundamental was the assumption that Kisii was an ODM region which appeared to be true By the fact that all the major seats were taken by the Opposition Cord.
Now: Is the ground the same? The answer is NO. One, Obure his going for the same seat and still his constituency ha the largest number of voters. Two, Obure has support from Bomachoge due to two factors i.e Maangi is likely to support him and he was once their member of Parliament when Bobasi and Bomachoge were one constituency. Three, South Mugirango looks like it is drifting away from Ongwae, take the recent alleged shortchanging of Silvanus Osoro in a view of influencing ODM nominations you can add Anthony Kibagendi ( the two are complaining of being short changed by the Governor).
The most damning is the corruption allegations that the Governor is facing and the major one being the embezzlement of Over seven Billion Kenyan Shillings which seems not to drift away any soon. He his also alleged to practice nepotism where by his close family members secure jobs in expence of other Citizens. Sum up such factors and you will realize that he has ceded much ground to Obure.
Other factors include, The support that Maangi has from the Members of Kisii County Assembly, Majority of elected leaders (Mambers of parliament) from the Large Kisii County are in the same camp with Obure (Obomo Bwomogusii Lobby) which has brought great impact in the political landscape since it has made the Him (Obure) look more closer to the people than Ongwae.
Not forgetting the surpot from one of the most respected family - Nyachae family has its demonstrated by Charles Nyachae.
I know somebody will Think that the Recently conducted Nyacheki By Election showed that ODM still maintains the superiority that it had in the region. In fact if the By election is to go by, ODM should be worried because the seat was theirs in region that is considered to be theirs and it is not logical for one to lose what one never had nor one to win what one already has.. Jubilee managed to take them to the wire, Jubilee never lost and Cord never won. If you won't mind you can also look at the results of the By election in Sala Ward in Tana River County where The ODM candidate got Less than 100 votes. who should be worried?
As things stand, Chris Obure has a upper hand in winning the Kisii Gubernatorial race and become the 2nd Kisii Governor come August 2017.
A break down of Registered voters in Kisii County (IEBC website)
261 BONCHARI 39,579
262 SOUTH MUGIRANGO 51,246
263 BOMACHOGE BORABU 38,701
264 BOBASI 66,475
BOMACHOGE CHACHE 31,488
266 NYARIBARI MASABA 43,982
267 NYARIBARI CHACHE 58,553
268 KITUTU CHACHE NORTH 37,805
269 KITUTU CHACHE SOUTH 45,116
